Watson Glaser 4: Inferences

Example 3

Text
Pablo participates in a chess tournament. Together with 4 friends who also participate in the tournament, he has practiced for more than 5 hours every day in recent months. It has been a very busy period, because Pablo also had his normal obligations for his French studies and his side job at a restaurant. The preparations paid off, because in the end Pablo wins the chess tournament while he had not thought this possible a few months before.

Statement
Without the preparations, Pablo would not have won the tournament.

Answer
Probably true. There is a clear link in the text between the the preparations and winning the tournament. It is also stated that a few months ago Pablo did not think it possible that he would win the tournament. However, based on the text, it cannot be stated with complete certainty that he would not have won the tournament without the preparations.